R&D & R&R

Why AI is the biggest deal since the wheel

In the Hypothetical Museum of Human Activity is a display for every artifact of humanity - every work of art, every object of worship, every toy and tool. Hypothetical archeologists and anthropologists have united to painstakingly unearth, restore, and classify pieces of pottery, carved idols, cave paintings, etc.

Within the Hall of Farming is the Evolution of Plows exhibit, a branching timeline of simple sharpened sticks and stones, progressing, several vaguely parallel inventions at a time, to the John Deere 2730 Combination Ripper. Down the hall stands the entrance to the Palace of Containers, home to an even more complex family tree of mud pots and pyrex dishes. The Museum’s East Wing hosts the Chamber of Computing. Tools here are far younger; a mere 5,000-year-old abacus rests atop a pillar, beside its cousins. These abaci are the Sharpened Sticks of Computing, the First Enhancers of human calculation. They are followed, with enormous lulls in the timeline, by a mess of mechanical labors of love and, eventually, a variety of metal and silicon cuboids of decreasing size. This display has been a recent hotspot for imaginary visitors, but today it is empty.

Today, the could-be crowds have gathered, with almost as much excitement as the Museum’s caretakers, to witness the opening of a new room. They will watch in reverent wonder as a lone artifact is placed on the ceremonial pedestal that marks the beginning of a new timeline. And not just any timeline. They were there to celebrate the opening of Human Flight and debate whether The Airplane actually warranted a new timeline or was merely a branch off Vehicles. They were there to nod in begrudging agreement when the first dedicated Back Scratcher Stick took its place on a pedestal. Today’s timeline is different, not as flashy as the light bulb or immediately miraculous as vaccines, but in some ways more prestigious. It’s a class of timeline that has not been kicked off for millenia.

For all our glaring lack of tails, scales, wings, and claws, humans are still equipped for a huge variety of tasks, even without tools. On the mental side, there’s intricate communication, planning, and a world of creative art and engineering. Physically, our headlines tend to be “opposable thumbs” and “able to travel for many miles”. But we’re also Swiss-army-knives of less lauded skills:

Of course, it’s tool crafting and usage that sets us apart. For this paradigm, we’ll group tools into two reductionist categories:

  1. Enhancements - improve existing human capabilities. A drinking glass or bowl can hold water better than our hands.
  2. Enablements - facilitate entirely new capabilities. Humans can’t emit light, but we’ve invented luminous tools.

For both Enhancements and Enablements, “Version 1” is momentous for our species. The first cave-brightening, fire-on-a-stick torch. The first ground-tilling sharpened rock. That spreading, cultural moment of, “Wow, we’ve only ever done this bare-handed; now there’s a way to go beyond our limits.”

Nearly every raw human capability has long since been entrusted to iterations of tools. Travel, carrying possessions, creating fabric, cleaning floors, planting, watering, harvesting. Most new Version 1s are Enablements. As far as Enhancements go, what Version 1s are even left? What can a human do that hasn’t been addressed by invention?

That’s the incredible thing about AI - unlike every Version 1 invention in our lifetimes, AI is not an Enablement. For the first time in millennia, a new Version 1 Enhancement has emerged; it does something humans already do. Even crazier, AI has produced multiple Version 1s within a few years. Wilder still:

Every remaining Version 1 Enhancement, i.e. every objective thing that humans can do, now has a tool.

For better or worse, AI can make music, draw pictures, write stories, converse, and reason. Like all Version 1s, these tools will be improved. Version 1s are not incredible because they’re the best, or even better than skilled humans; they’re incredible because they herald an end to working within the limits of a raw human capability. As we consider analogous technologies to predict AI’s impact, “The Internet”, “Computers”, and “Engines” may fall short. A more fitting comparison of anthropological impact would be Stones For Counting or Wheels For Travel.

These Version 1 Enhancements broadly represent tools for “Creating Art” and “Reasoning”. Evaluating art takes us into the philosophic, as does the question of whether AI (specifically LLMs) can actually reason like a human. Practically, the takeaways are that we have Version 1 Robot Artist, and Version 1 Reasoning that are good enough for some practical application. The questions of, “what does this mean?”, “what can we do now?”, “what should we do now?” are perhaps more critical than ever, but also standard for any invention.

What we’re uniquely left with, now that every aspect of work as it relates to industry and chores can be mimicked, are those eternal philosophers’ questions:

“What is it that humans uniquely do? Love? Critique? Be silly with friends? What does it mean to bring simulation to those?” “Are humans more than physical? Are spiritual experiences a physically stimulated illusion? Does it matter?”

“What is purpose? Legacy? Why are we here?”

What’s more, the very creation of LLMs is based on a scientific hunch that a brain-like architecture, with brain-like training, might perform brain-like tasks. There is identity crisis in the entangled unknowns of how our minds work and whether these creative models themselves might hold insights or even romance-shattering answers.

Certainly, AI will spur and spawn untold inventions, including new Enablements; like the Wheel before it, we can’t help but imagine the descendent line of carts, cars, and Mars Rovers that a Version 1 inspires. We’ll have an endless supply of “back in my day” and man-vs-machine rifts that are as old as invention.

But I anticipate that AI will also bring about a resurgence of focus on human meaning, both demanding and enabling a convergence of philosophic, religious, and moral thought about the Grand Meta. And unlike past events that forced non-philosophers to answer the Big Questions (usually times of fear and uncertainty), this one will not pass. Behind the commotion of new progress and invention will be the shrinking list of uniquely human activities, which could fast become the only non-commodities.

Part 2 ->

See also:

Interview with Ilya Sutskever, the father of modern LLMs, conducted wonderfully by Jensen Huang: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6qQinoY9WM

Anthropology of Tech: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropology_of_technology

Some very old, very controversial thoughts on the matter: https://www.bible.com/bible/111/ECC.1.NIV

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